Investor Presentaiton
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
UAE Economic Overview
Highlights
Any
Non-oil sector growth remains robust, underpinned by
infrastructure spending and growth in key trading partners.
Oil production in Q1 2015 was 1.2% higher y/y at just under
2.8mn bpd, according to Bloomberg estimates.
increase, if sustained, would be a potential upside to our
4.3% growth forecast which had assumed flat oil output.
PMI readings have eased in Q1 2015, but remain well above
the neutral 50-level. Export order growth has remained very
strong, supported by regional demand.
Country
UAE
China
Appendix
Strategy
M bpd
Financial
Operating Performance
0.5
0.0
Dec-10
UAE Oil Production
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5-
1.0-
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
UAE Oil Production (lhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
140
120
100
ུ 8 ༅ ⌘ ྴ °༠
80
USD per barrel
58
56
56
556
54
52
54
50
Aug-09
Source: Markit/HSBC
62
22
60
60
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
Emirates NBD
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014F 2015F
1.6%
4.9%
4.7%
5.2%
4.5% 4.3%
10.4%
9.3%
7.7%
7.7%
7.4% 7.0%
Eurozone
1.9%
1.6%
-0.7% -0.4%
0.8%
1.5%
Hong Kong
6.8%
4.8%
1.5%
2.9% 2.2%
2.7%
India
9.4%
7.7%
4.8%
4.7%
4.8%
5.5%
Japan
4.7%
-0.5%
1.8%
1.6%
0.5%
1.5%
Singapore
15.4%
5.3%
2.5%
3.9%
2.8%
3.2%
UK
1.9%
1.6%
0.7%
1.7%
3.0% 2.5%
US
2.5%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
3.5%
Saudi
4.8%
10.0% 5.4%
2.7%
3.6%
3.0%
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Feb-11
Aug-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-11
May-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May 12
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
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