Investor Presentaiton
17
A.P. Moller-Maersk Annual Report 2020
Directors' Report Market update
眼
Imports
110
Total
105
Goods
Services
100
Ocean market update
Global container trade declined in 2020, follow-
ing the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth improved to
around 5% in Q4 2020, but the sharp contraction
in Q2 led to a full-year negative growth of 2%, con-
siderably weaker than in 2019. The 2020 slowdown
reflected the broad-based crisis across all the
main economies, although the H2 2020 recovery
was faster than projections made during spring.
The second wave of COVID-19 weighs on the early
part of 2021, while the roll-out of an effective vac-
cine could have a positive impact on H2 2021.
Effective supply growth was contained during the
year, as the industry adjusted fleet capacity to the
deteriorating demand, and market fundamentals
were broadly balanced. However, a significant
demand rebound in the US and partially in Europe
together with extensive equipment shortages drove
up freight rates in H2, and freight rates increased
by 18% compared to 2019.
COVID-19 and container demand
Container trade growth on the East-West trades
declined by 2% in 2020 (table 1). European import
growth from Asia was heavily impacted by the
COVID-19 pandemic in H1 and declined by 13%, first
by lockdowns in China and later by lockdowns in
Europe. The subsequent recovery in H2 was not
strong enough to offset the initial decline. North
American container imports from Asia also declined
in H1 by 9.5%, but inventory restocking and a sig-
nificant spike in US goods consumption fuelled by
a housing boom and fiscal stimulus lifted full year
import growth to around 4% in 2020. Asian imports
from the US and Europe (East-West backhaul)
showed a moderate decline during most quarters
Chart 1
US consumption and North American container imports
1,000 FFE
Dec Jan
2019
Real consumption, Q4 2019 = 100
1,500
1,300
1,100
Sep
2020
900
700
95
90
85
80
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019
2020
Chart 2
Global container demand
and nominal supply growth
y/y growth, (%)
III
Chart 3
Freight rates
Global container
Index 1998 = 100
15
demand
Nominal supply
10
Effective supply
5
Source: Demand
0
and effective supply
is internal Maersk
-5
and nominal supply
is Alphaliner.
-10
-15
1,900
CCFI 2020
CCFI 2019
CCFI 2018
1,700
Source:
1,500
Thomson/Reuters.
1,300
Source: CCFI,
Shanghai Shipping
Exchange.
1,100
Note: 2020 freight
rates were signifi-
900
cantly higher than
in 2019.
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4
Q4
Q4 Q4 Q4
in 2020, reflecting the decline in global activity.
North-South container trade dropped sharply in
2020. Latin American imports decreased by 9%,
reflecting strong negative impact from COVID-19 in
all major economies in the region. African imports
decreased by 5%. Finally, intra-regional trades
recorded a milder downturn, as mainly Intra-Asia
with around 0% growth in 2020 proved fairly
resistant to the global crisis.
As a COVID-19 vaccine becomes widely available
during 2021, there is reason to believe that con-
tainer demand will grow, possibly by 3-5% in 2021.
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