Financial Analysis and Currency Deposits
Cypriot economy proves resilient and adaptable to external shocks
GDP grew by 6.1% in 2Q2022
Quarterly Real GDP qoq % change
14.6%
13.4%
Annual Real GDP yoy % change
5.5% 5.4% >5.0%
4Q2020
1Q2021
2,182
22%
6.0% 6.1%
5.4%
3.9%
2021
2022E1
Cyprus
Euro area
2Q2021
3Q2021
4Q2021
1Q2022
2Q2022
2.6%
2.8%
1.4%
•
2023E²
GDP Cyprus (% quarterly change)
GDP - Euro area (% quarterly change)
•
Better than expected tourism performance despite challenges
Tourist arrivals ('000) for Jan-Jul
638
321
1,676
-2%
-23%
Tourism
Receipts
Revenue
(€ mn)
1H2019 1H2021
1H2022
1,003
259
836
Deviation
from 2019
2019
2020
2021
Russian, Belarus & Ukraine
2022
Tourist arrivals
Source: Eurostat, Cyprus Statistical Services, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy
1)
2)
GDP forecasts: For Cyprus: Cyprus Statistical Service, Ministry of Finance in August 2022; For Euro area: ECB projections published in July 2022
GDP forecasts: Cyprus: Economic Research Centre of University of Cyprus in July 2022; For Euro area: ECB projections published in July 2022
GDP expected to grow by over 5%¹ in 2022 and by c.2.8%² in 2023,
outperforming wider Euro area
Strong performance in January-May activity and strong labour market
indicators support the 2022 outlook, notwithstanding a modest
slowdown in activity in 2H2022:
- Industrial production up 5% yoy
- Retail sales excluding vehicles up 4% yoy
Investments and reforms, through the Recovery and Resilience Plan
(€1.2 bn) are expected to support growth (slides 43-44)
Tourism
•
•
Tourism sector recovering towards pre-pandemic levels
Stronger than anticipated tourist arrivals from markets other than
Russia (UK, Greece, Germany)
Jan-Jul 2022 arrivals at c.77% of 2019 levels and
•
-74%
-17%
1H2022 receipts at 83% 2019 levels - higher spending per
capita
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