Domestic Inventory and Well Costs
DIRECT AIR CAPTURE
ILLUSTRATIVE DAC ECONOMIC MODELING
TAM MODEL
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
•
•
$250/t LCOC: 5,000 million tonnes of carbon
abatement equating to 5,000 MTPA DAC plants
о
1,200 DAC Plants for aviation TAM alone
$125/t LCOC: 15,000 million tonnes of carbon
abatement equating to 15,000 MTPA DAC plants
Updated development scenario of 100 plants equates
to ~2% of TAM at $250/t LCOC and less than 1% of
TAM at $125/t LCOC
REVENUE MODEL
Carbon removal credit volumes
Net carbon removal credit sales approximates
900k tonne per annum per DAC plant
Carbon removal credit pricing/incentives
•
Government policy support includes 45Q tax credits
at current rates of $130 / $180 per tonne for
Use/Dedicated Sequestration
Other $/tonne revenue sourced from voluntary /
compliance market purchase agreements
CO2 generated in DAC process will also be
captured and sequestered, generating point-source
45Q credits
COST MODEL
DAC 1 LCOC expected to be in the range of $400 to
$500/t
44
44
Capital costs plus cost of capital charge and operating
costs approximates 45% / 55% of DAC 1 LCOC
Falling per unit LCOC consistent with similar historical
technology learning curves
•
Nth DAC expected in the 30 - 50 plant range
Capital costs plus cost of capital charge and operating
costs approximates 30% / 70% of Nth plant LCOC
Capital costs percentage of total:
•
Air Contactors: 40%
.
Centralized Processing: 40%
Government
Policy Support
.
Utilities & Infrastructure: 20%
CASH FLOW PROFILE MODEL
DAC 1 plant capital cost estimated at ~$1.1 B for
first 500k tonne per annum train, scaling capital by
1.6x for a 1 MTPA DAC plant.
Construction build-time less than 3 years
Current support scenario with 45Q includes
12 years of tax credit generation
Other revenue sources for the entire operating life of
plant expected to be 25 years
Voluntary/Compliance
$/t
CURRENT SUPPORT SCENARIO
$400 - 630/t
Operating costs percentage of total of Nth Plant
Materials/Chemicals
Storage
Energy
SG&A/Property
Tax/OtherView entire presentation