Outlook Projection FY 2023-24 slide image

Outlook Projection FY 2023-24

-10 -20 N -30 FL Personal Income Since Inception of COVID... 80 70 60 50 Personal Income: annualized percent change from preceding period 40 36.1 28.5 30 20 10 4.3 5.4 0 2019:Q4-2020:Q1 2020:Q1-:Q2 -10.8 -7.8 -4.6 -5.6 2020:Q2-:Q3 2020:Q3-:Q4 2020:Q4-2021:Q1 66.2 56.9 -20.2 -19.3 2021:Q1-:Q2 United States Florida 2021:Q2-:Q3 In the 1st Quarter of 2022, Florida's growth was ranked 32nd in the nation. 3.0 3.7 3.6 2021:Q3-:Q4 9.2 4.8 4.4 2021:Q4-2022:Q1 Normally, personal income growth is another important gauge of the state's economic health; however, its changes have been in stark contrast to GDP, driven largely by the ebb and flow of federal dollars into Florida households and businesses. For example, in the first quarter of the 2021 calendar year, Florida's personal income growth shot up 66.2 percent, largely due to two different federal stimulus and relief programs converging in the quarter. As the federal support measures began to fade, the state's personal income plummeted to an annualized loss of -19.3 percent in the second quarter of the 2021 calendar year, yet yielded a final growth rate for the 2020-21 fiscal year of 7.9 percent, the highest rate since 2015. Fiscal Year 2021-22 saw moderately lower growth of 5.5 percent as the benefit from workers returning to their jobs or leveraging the tight labor market into better paying opportunities competed with the end of federal relief measures. The Economic Estimating Conference expects growth of 6.4 percent in Fiscal Year 2022-23, largely on the continuing strength of salary growth. Thereafter, annual growth rates are expected to remain solidly at or above 4.0 percent. 3
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