KASIKORNTHAI Regulatory Capital and Financial Performance Update
Billion Baht
Billion Baht
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Monetary and fiscal expansion raises financial stability concerns
In contrast to the Fed, the BOT has maintained interest rate to
support the economy amid COVID-19 outbreak
Thailand has enough FX reserves
to meet all internal and external obligations
%
BOT Policy Rate
Fed Funds Rate -Lower Bound
6.00
Fed Funds Rate -Upper Bound
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
FX Reserves
■Net Forward Position
$ Billion
$ Billion
■3 months of imports
Reserves backing banknotes
■ST external debt
300
300
$241.3 bn
$245.8 bn
250
250
200
200
71.8
150
216.6
211.2
150
$217.55 Billion
68.4
100
100
50
50
77.4
0
29.2
2022-end
30.1
0
July 2023
Last Update: October 27, 2023
1.00
0.00
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Sources: BOT, Federal Reserves and KResearch (as of August 2023)
■Due to high inflationary pressures, the Fed decided to
raise its policy rate to 5.25-5.50% in November 2023
■Monetary easing leads to a massive exodus of capital
from emerging markets and worsens exchange rate
depreciation in 2023. However, Thailand's external
stability will likely be maintained
■Thai banking system excess liquidity rose slightly. CAR
was good (19.54% as of August 2023) and NPL ratio was
still manageable (2.67% as of 2Q23), with net profits of
Bt123.1 billion in 1H23
Source: BOT and KResearch
Excess liquid assets in Thai commercial banks slightly rose
Million Baht
5,000,000
183.5
184.7
4,000,000
176.9
178.1
173.8
3,000,000
%LCR
191.9 190.3
191.3
187.7
184.1
2,000,000
2016 2017
2018 2019 2020
Liquid Assets
2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 Aug-23
―LCR (%)
Note: BOT has imposed the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Framework which replaces the maintenance 6% reserve
requirement. Regarding the LCR framework, all banks shall maintain high-quality liquid assets not less than net expected
cash outflow over the next 30 days. The LCR was implemented on January 1, 2016, with the minimum requirement set at
60%, rising in equal annual steps of 10 percentage points to reach 100% on January 1, 2020
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Other Figures
Thai Bond Market Size (Gov't and Private bonds)
18,000
100
88.8 91.0 90.9 91.8
16,000
90
14,000
63.3 64.4 64.8 69.4 69.6 70.2 72.9 74.5 73.6
78.1 78.7
12,000
53.9 52.4
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
• 3 3 8 6 8 8 3 8 8 គឺ
%
4.0
3.5
% to GDP
1,200
1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23
Thai Bond Outstanding (LHS)
Bond Market Size to GDP (RHS)
Foreign Holdings of Thai Bonds
800
600
4.0%
5.9%
400 -1.0%
1.5% 1.1%
200
49
76
0
2007 2009 2011
8.3% 8.4%
2013
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Bond Yields
3.6
3.0
2.4 2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
6M 1Y
-Dec 19
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
Dec 20
-
Dec 21
6Y 7Y 8Y
--Dec 22
9Y
10Y
15Y
Nov 3, 2023
Current Account and FX Reserve
USD Billion
50,000
USD216.6 bn (2022-end)
USD Billion
300,000
10%
8.2% 7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
6.9% 6.9%
8%
6.0% 6.4%
6.1%
5.7%
6%
4%
2%
0%
% of Total Bond Outstanding
40,000
250,000
30,000
200,000
20,000
150,000
10,000
100,000
0
-10,000
50,000
-20,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
Oct-23
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
USD-14.7 bn (2022-end)
2014 2017 2020
0
% of Thai Bond Market (RHS)
Current Account (LHS) --FX Reserves (RHS)
Foreign Holding Outstanding (LHS)
Source: BOT and ThaiBMA
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
166
165View entire presentation