Investor Presentaiton
Robust economic growth path (2/3)
Comments
Increasing consumer demand remains the main driver of
Ukraine's real GDP growth
Final private consumption grew by 11.9% (y-o-y) in
2019, whereas retail trade turnover growth started to
slow down to 3.1% in Jan-May 2020
Consumer demand is driven by a number of factors,
including among others improving consumer sentiments,
rise in real wages, consumer lending and personal
money remittances
•
Real wages went up by 1.4% y-o-y in May 2020 and by
6.9% y-o-y in Jan-May 2020 cumulatively with growth
being supported by 13.2% increase in minimum wage in
2020 and increased competition for the labor force
Real wages growth (%) and avg monthly nominal wages (UAH)
30%
14 000
20%
12 000
10 542
10%
0%
(10%)
(20%)
(30%)
(40%)
10 000
1.4%
8 000
6.000
4.000
Real wages index
2 000
Average monthly nominal wage, UAH
0
Jan-17
Mar-17
Private consumption and consumer sentiments evolution
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Retail trade growth (y-o-y)1, %
20%
100
៩ ៦ ៖ 8 ≥ 8 8 8
98 92 60%
15%
90
49 47
53 51 53 50
42
57 56
7.5% 8.2
5.3% 6.2% 7.5% 8.2%
63 62
59 59 60 58
66
65
ill
50%
10%
40%
5%
30%
0%
11.7% 10.7% 10.2%
20%
(5%)
(1.8%)
(13.6%) 4.6% 2.7%
10%
(10%)
12.0% 12.2%
8.5% 13.7% 11.7%
6.9%
70%
(15%)
10
20(20.3% (19.0%)
(27.0%)
(10)%
(20%)
(20)%
(25%)
(21.7%)
0
(30)%
(30%) (25.3%)
July 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
'15 '15 '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 '17 '17 '17 '17 '18 '18 '18 '18 '19 '19 '19 '19
Consumer sentiments index (eop)
Private consumption growth, % (y-o-y)
Source GFK, State Statistics Service of Ukraine
..السيسي
8.8%
5.8%
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
5.2%
7.4%
13.5%
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Note 1 To the corresponding period of the previous year on a cumulative basis
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
3.1%
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