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Investor Presentaiton

COVID-19 Pillar II: Macroeconomic Response - findings Figure 3. Real GDP level (left) and growth (right) pre and post Figure 13. Share of highly impacted sectors in emloyment 40 5 35 Index 2017=100 114 112 3,6 3,1 2,7 110 108 106 I 4 30 3,5 3 -7.1% 2 25 I I 1 20 i-8% 0 | do 15 104 102 100 -1 T -2 10 -3 Households as employers Art, entertainment, recreation Real estate Accommodation and food Transportation and storage Wholesale and retail trade 5 98 96 94 92 2017 -4 0 -5 2019 -5,0 2020 -6 2021 Source: IMF 2018 Albania Serbia BiH N. Macedonia Kosovo Montenegro Source: The World Bank, own calculations Pre-COVID IMF WEO Oct2019 Post-COVID IMF WEO April2020 Real GDP growth IMF WEO 2020 • ● Mitigation 1: large public sector (blessing and a curse; short vs long run) Mitigation 2: economic structure • Mitigation 3: sustainable fiscal position with public debt likely below 40% of GDP 6
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