Investor Presentaiton
COVID-19
Pillar II: Macroeconomic Response - findings
Figure 3. Real GDP level (left) and growth (right) pre and post
Figure 13. Share of highly impacted sectors in emloyment
40
5
35
Index 2017=100
114
112
3,6
3,1
2,7
110
108
106
I
4
30
3,5
3
-7.1%
2
25
I
I
1
20
i-8%
0
|
do
15
104
102
100
-1
T
-2
10
-3
Households as employers
Art, entertainment, recreation
Real estate
Accommodation and food
Transportation and storage
Wholesale and retail trade
5
98
96
94
92
2017
-4
0
-5
2019
-5,0
2020
-6
2021
Source: IMF
2018
Albania
Serbia
BiH
N. Macedonia
Kosovo
Montenegro
Source: The World Bank, own
calculations
Pre-COVID IMF WEO Oct2019
Post-COVID IMF WEO April2020
Real GDP growth IMF WEO 2020
•
●
Mitigation 1: large public sector (blessing and a curse; short vs long run)
Mitigation 2: economic structure
•
Mitigation 3: sustainable fiscal position with public debt likely below 40% of GDP
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