Investor Presentaiton
Sustained inflation an obvious risk
Phillips curve historically has held in Ireland
Inflation expectations picking up for consumers and
businesses
Philips curve has held in Ireland in recent past and
unemployment is below 5%
40
do
20
80
60
80
10
60
48°
wwwwww.
0
2
0
-20
Nominal COE growth per head*
N
+
6
00
Covid
outliers
2022
forecast
range
I
I
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
-2
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
- Consumer expectations, Ihs
Industry expectations, lhs
Services expectations, Ihs
-Headline inflation, rhs
2
4
6
8
10 12 14
16
18 20
22
Unemployment rate
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Source: DG ECFIN, Eurostat
* Excludes agriculture incomes
Source: CSO, Eurostat
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