Georgia's Economic Outlook 2020
Jan-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE - POLICY PRIORITY
FX RESERVES
Source: NBG
5.0
1.42 1.30
1.25
1.36 1.31
1.23 1.24
1.5
1.16
1.29
1.13
130
4.0
1.03
120
1.0
3.0
3.5
110
3.3
3.4
2.8 2.9
3.0
2.0
2.8
2.7
2.8
100
2.5
2.3
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.0
Official FX reserves, US$ bn
-M2 multiplier
M2 AND ANNUAL INFLATION
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
M2, % change, y/y (LHS)
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
May-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Aug-19
Annual inflation, eop (RHS)
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
– 8
NOMINAL AND REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
(JAN2014=100)
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Nominal effective exchange rate
Source: NBG
M2 AND USD/GEL
8%
40%
6%
30%
4%
20%
2%
10%
0%
0%
-2%
-10%
appreciation
Jan-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
M2, % change, y/y (LHS)
Jan-16
May-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
May-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
GEL/USD, % change, y/y (RHS)
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
May-19
62
Source: NBG
130
120
-6.6% y/y 110
100
90
-4.6% y/y 80
Real effective exchange rate
Aug-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
depreciation
Source: NBG
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%View entire presentation