Investor Presentaiton
Structure of natural gas imports & energy consumption
Structure of natural gas
imports in Greece
%
100%
100
15%
23%
21%
80
80%
27%
60
60%
32%
45%
40
40%
20
57%
0
20%
46%
34%
0%
2013-2020 2021
1H22
■Azerbaijan
LNG
■Russia
The impact of inflation on private disposable income is cushioned by fiscal measures, partly financed by tax revenue
growth; further escalation of the energy crisis in EU could pose additional stress on 2H22 activity
NATIONAL BANK
OF GREECE
■Solid fossil fuels
Energy mix (Greece, Euro area)
2020
120
80
ក្លិនខ្លួនខ្លុ
40
0
240 €/MWh
200
160
Greece
Nuclear
Euro area
Renewables incl. hydro & biofuels
Natural gas
■Oil & petroleum products
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Futures-implied NG prices for 2H22 up by 59% compared
with early-May estimates and +54% for 2023
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Fiscal measures announced until July 2022
New fiscal measures in 2022 - gross value estimates
Tax revenue & GDP growth per quarter
24
y-o-y,
€ bn
% GDP
2q m.a.
18
Firms
Subsidies for electricity & natural gas costs (Jan - Jul 2022)
Households
1.7
0.8%
12
6
Subsidies for electricity & natural gas bills (Jan - Jul 2022)
1.6
0.8%
0
Retroactive increase in the subsidization of electricity bills for 5M22
Increased allowances to vulnerable citizens
0.3
0.1%
-6
0.3 0.2%
-12
Prepaid card for fuels
0.5
0.3%
-18
Other (mainly support to farmers)
0.1
0.0%
Total for Households
2.8
1.4%
-24
24
18
12
6
0
- -6
-12
-18
y-o-y
-24
New mechanism for valuation at cost in wholesale electricity market &
new subsidy scheme for retail electricity bills (for 2H22) for both
businesses and households
2.0
1.0%
Total
6.5
3.2%
Tax revenue (2q m.a., left axis)
GDP growth (real, right axis)
Sources: Greek Ministry of Finance & NBG Economic Analysis estimates
Sources: ELSTAT, Greek Ministry of Finance, DESFA, European Commission, FRED, European Energy Exchange, ICE Exchange & NBG Economic Analysis estimates
National Bank of Greece 2Q22 results
Macro
22
$/barrel
120
90
60
30
0
Natural gas avg monthly price (TTF, futures 6/5/2022, left axis)
Natural gas avg monthly price (TTF, futures 19/7/2022, left axis)
Natural gas avg monthly price (TTF spot, €/MWh, left axis)
Crude oil avg monthly price (brent spot, usd/barrel, right axis)
Crude oil avg monthly price (brent futures, 6/5/2022, right axis)
Crude oil avg monthly price (brent futures, 19/7/2022, right axis)
29
Sep-22
-22
23
23
23
23View entire presentation