Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic Developments
GDP Growth and Current Account Deficit
8
6
Per Cent
4
2
0
-2
Growth (% y/y)
Avg growth: 4.9%
-Current account deficit (%GDP)
Avg growth: 2.3%
Growth is lower since crisis
Weaker consumer (weak employment growth, higher
inflation)
Private investment subdued (low confidence,
electricity constraints)
Unemployment 25.5% in Q2 2014
Current account deficit remains wide despite rand
weakness
-
Due to import volumes growing faster than export
volumes and unfavorable terms of trade
Flexible rand has helped support export
competitiveness
But electricity constraints limiting the adjustment of
the CAD
Strike activity worsened export performance further in
2014
Inflation remains within the target band, but close to upper
range
Pass through relatively muted
-
Wage increases are major risk
-6
-8
2000
2001
Source: IMF WEO, October 2014, NT calculations
Note 2014, 2015 are forecasts. National Treasury's latest forecasts will be released with Medium
Term Budget Policy Statement 22 October 2014
First average represents average growth / CAD from 2004 - 2008.
Second average represents average growth/CAD from 2011 - 2015
national treasury
Department:
National Treasury
REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-4
Avg CAD: -5.2%
Avg CAD: -4.9%
2014*
2015*
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