COVID-Impacted Sectors Recovery Outlook
Economic Context of Historical Tightening Cycles
Both the unemployment rate is lower AND inflation measures are
substantially higher today than at the beginning of prior rate hike cycles
Summary of Recent Fed Funds Rate Hike Cycles:
Date of First Rate Hike
Historical Tightening Cycles
Apr-87
Feb-94
Jun-99
Jun-04
Dec-15
Average Current
Key Economic Indicators at First Rate Hike:1
U-3 Headline Unemployment Rate
6.3%
6.6%
4.3%
5.6%
5.0% i
5.6%
4.8%
U-6 Unemployment Rate
N.A.
11.4%
7.5%
9.6%
9.9%
9.6%
8.5%
Core CPI Inflation (Trailing 6 Month)
4.3%
2.6%
1.4%
2.6%
2.0%
2.6%
6.4%
CPI Inflation (Trailing 6 Month)
4.7%
2.6%
2.2%
3.7%
0.2%
2.7%
7.2%
Core PCE Inflation (Trailing 6 Month)
3.0%
1.9%
1.1%
2.3%
1.0%
1.9%
5.7%
Total Fed Funds Rate Increase
3.75%
3.00%
1.75%
4.25%
2.25%
3.00%
?
Average Rate Increase Per Quarter
0.51%
0.75%
0.48%
0.53%
0.19%
0.49%
?
Starting Fed Funds Upper Bound
6.00%
3.00%
4.75%
1.00%
0.25%
3.00%
0.25%
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(1)
Unemployment figures are as of the month of the first Fed Funds rate hike. Inflation figures represent the annualized, average month-over-month increases of the trailing six months prior
to the first Fed Funds rate hike.
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