Investor Presentaiton
Chapter VIII - MSMEs - Revitalizing Punjab's Economy
opatent
INTE
ATION
MONETARY
FUND
1.5% Contraction
IMF estimates
Pakistan's economy
may contract by 1.5%
0.3% to 4.64% Loss
Pakistan Institute of Development
Economics (PIDE) estimates loss
to national GDP
USD 500 mn to 8.1 bn loss
PIDE's estimates translate
into Punjab's loss
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1.2% -2.3% -ve growth
World Bank's Outlook for Asia
report; Pakistan's economy
would move to negative
growth, translating to economy
shrinkage by 10%
USD 3 - 5 billion Loss
4-6 million job losses
Estimates for Punjab predict
economic losses to the
Province in terms of amount
and employment
USD 1.3 bn to 3.0 bn loss
Punjab's Planning &
Development Board has
estimated an export revenue
loss to this tune
Unemployment Impact Assessment
According to Pakistan Labour Force Survey 2017-18, Punjab has more than 37 million employed persons. It is estimated that 68% of Pakistan's
MSMEs are in Punjab which employ bulk of this labour force. Approximately 16 million are in the non-agriculture labour force and informally
employed or engaged in small-scale self-employment. These constitute the most vulnerable segment of the labour force as majority of them
are associated with MSMEs in one capacity or another. Invariably all of them went out of work as the lockdown was announced in the Province
on 23rd March, 2020. PIDE estimates that unemployment can be anywhere between 1.8 million to 11.2 Million, while Punjab's own estimates
suggest unemployment between 4-7 Million. However, some part of this unemployment may be temporary and may have started to recover
as soon as the economy has begun to slowly open. But, due to uncertainty about the pandemic cycle, unemployment is expected to remain
high in this segment.
37 million
Persons Employed
in Punjab
MSMES
68%
16 million
in Punjab
Non-Agri Labor
555
1.8 to 11.2 million
Unemployment due to COVID
Lockdown (PIDE Estimates)
4 to 7 million
Unemployment due to COVID
Lockdown (GoPb Estimates)
With a view to providing relief to this vulnerable labour force, Punjab has focused its immediate response on social protection, in addition to
healthcare interventions, to protect the out of work labour force and to ensure that the food and essential goods supply chains continue to stay
operational. However, with gradual easing of lockdown and as the impact on MSMEs becomes clearer, the Government of Punjab has realized
the need to enable the businesses to restart economic activity, help them recoup some of the losses and sustain themselves in the post-
COVID-19 scenario.
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