Investor Presentaiton slide image

Investor Presentaiton

Chapter VIII - MSMEs - Revitalizing Punjab's Economy opatent INTE ATION MONETARY FUND 1.5% Contraction IMF estimates Pakistan's economy may contract by 1.5% 0.3% to 4.64% Loss Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) estimates loss to national GDP USD 500 mn to 8.1 bn loss PIDE's estimates translate into Punjab's loss > > (> > (> 1.2% -2.3% -ve growth World Bank's Outlook for Asia report; Pakistan's economy would move to negative growth, translating to economy shrinkage by 10% USD 3 - 5 billion Loss 4-6 million job losses Estimates for Punjab predict economic losses to the Province in terms of amount and employment USD 1.3 bn to 3.0 bn loss Punjab's Planning & Development Board has estimated an export revenue loss to this tune Unemployment Impact Assessment According to Pakistan Labour Force Survey 2017-18, Punjab has more than 37 million employed persons. It is estimated that 68% of Pakistan's MSMEs are in Punjab which employ bulk of this labour force. Approximately 16 million are in the non-agriculture labour force and informally employed or engaged in small-scale self-employment. These constitute the most vulnerable segment of the labour force as majority of them are associated with MSMEs in one capacity or another. Invariably all of them went out of work as the lockdown was announced in the Province on 23rd March, 2020. PIDE estimates that unemployment can be anywhere between 1.8 million to 11.2 Million, while Punjab's own estimates suggest unemployment between 4-7 Million. However, some part of this unemployment may be temporary and may have started to recover as soon as the economy has begun to slowly open. But, due to uncertainty about the pandemic cycle, unemployment is expected to remain high in this segment. 37 million Persons Employed in Punjab MSMES 68% 16 million in Punjab Non-Agri Labor 555 1.8 to 11.2 million Unemployment due to COVID Lockdown (PIDE Estimates) 4 to 7 million Unemployment due to COVID Lockdown (GoPb Estimates) With a view to providing relief to this vulnerable labour force, Punjab has focused its immediate response on social protection, in addition to healthcare interventions, to protect the out of work labour force and to ensure that the food and essential goods supply chains continue to stay operational. However, with gradual easing of lockdown and as the impact on MSMEs becomes clearer, the Government of Punjab has realized the need to enable the businesses to restart economic activity, help them recoup some of the losses and sustain themselves in the post- COVID-19 scenario. Page 66
View entire presentation