Vanguard's Economic and Market Overview

Probability of recession for select regions United States Euro area United Kingdom China Source: Vanguard, as of June 30, 2022. Next 12 months Next 24 months For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors. 25% 30% 35% 65% DRIVERS / KEY RISKS • Federal Reserve tightening path . Inflation eroding consumer purchasing power Ukraine war impact 50% • European Central Bank tightening path 60% • Tighter global financial conditions. • Bank of England tightening path 50% . Squeeze on real incomes 60% Further COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in renewed lockdowns V 16 |

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