Investor Presentation
IMO 2020: Changes in Bunker Specification and Its Effects
Beyond 2020
Current Outlook
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
6
5
43
2
1
0
HSFO replacement expectations
-0.6
-0.5
1.3
-1.1
Current compliant fuels
• Marine Gasoil (Diesel): Easiest solution as it is already
available
• Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO): Either through FCC
with sweet crudes or by blending
•
Scrubbers: As of 07/02/20, ~3.4K vessels are either
fitted or scheduled to be fitted and ~0.6K vessels are
on order book to be delivered with scrubbers
•
Current
HSFO
HSFO
w/ scrubbers
HSFO
Non-compliance
VLSFO
MGO
LNG: requires significant investments at ports
Long term outlook for marine fuels
Compliant HSFO Non-compliant HSFO VLSFO MGO LNG
Demand shift beyond 2020
• VLSFO is the initial choice, followed by MGO
•
Fuel choice might change through the years as
availability & compatibility issues get resolved
• Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise
from ~2K after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans
on open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might
change)
February 20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Investor Presentation
Appendix
www.tupras.com.tr
Source: Market Reports
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