Investor Presentaiton
Overview of Current Economic Conditions
Real interest rates are at clearly restrictive levels (~250bps across the yield curve)
Inflation is showing encouraging signs of moderating from peak levels
On a trailing three-month average basis, Core CPI is run-rating ~3% & Core PCE ~2%
Supply-demand imbalance in the labor market is improving
■ Slowing wage growth should point to further easing in core services inflation
Economic growth has been resilient; however, growth is likely to slow going forward
Income growth is decelerating; excess household savings are being depleted; consumer loan
supply & demand are weakening with deteriorating credit quality
Low-income consumer is under stress and facing fiscal headwinds from the end of pandemic-
era relief programs and student loan repayments
Recent rapid rise in long-end rates will further tighten financial conditions
■ Beginning to see early signs of slowing consumer spend
Emerging risks: heightened geopolitical uncertainty, financial system instability
We believe the current macroeconomic backdrop calls for more balanced monetary policy that is
attentive to two-sided risks to growth and inflation
2View entire presentation