China's Economic Overview and Challenges slide image

China's Economic Overview and Challenges

Hong Kong economy: Covid-19 is a central concern Exports, the main growth driver, likely to slow in 2022 Covid-19 could stall the labour market and block improvement in private consumption Hong Kong Covid-19 Cases and Vaccination Rate Hong Kong Exports and Imports 30% 25% Year-on-year change 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 600 26.3% 24.3% 500 400 300 200 100 0 03/20 07/20 11/20 New cases 03/21 07/21 11/21 - Vaccination rate (%) -5% -10% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Exports Imports 80 70 60 50 40 10 R23220 Sources: Hong Kong Center for Health Protection; Our World in Data, data as of 9/2/2022 Remark: New cases are 7-day rolling average Source: Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, data as of 28/1/2022 Downside risks are looming with the Omicron variant, supply bottlenecks, and moderating growth in Mainland China. With a high base of comparison, exports are expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. BEA東亞銀行 Prior to the fifth Covid-19 outbreak, private consumption was recovering steadily, while Hong Kong's unemployment rate continued to trend lower. Covid-19 has delayed reopening of the border, and earlier-than- expected US interest rate hikes could cloud the outlook. 12
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