Colombian Economy & Banking Sector Analysis
Canada: COVID-19 Major Drag on Growth
Substantial policy support should enable a rebound post-virus
Fiscal Response Across
Major Economies
Loan, equity and guarantee measures*
35
Rev. & exp. measures
30
40
INN W w A
25
20
15
10
10
G7 avg., total
G7 avg., direct
5
KP
* Tax deferrals not included.
ES
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, IMF.
As of mid-April
4,000
CAD monthly
3,000
2,000
1,000
US
AU
AU
Core Expenses Across Households
JP
IT
DE
.
COVID-19 leading to sharp drop in
economic activity in 1H20
•
Massive government support is setting the
stage for a sharp rebound in the economy in
2H20 if the virus remains contained.
Population growth remains a key
differentiator in Canada relative to other
countries
The Lasting Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian GDP
110
total core expenses
Index, 2019Q4 = 100
core expenses with mortgage deferral
105
100
unemployment benefit
95
95
90
90
85
January 13 forecast
Current forecast
80
80
0
Bottom
Middle
Top
Bottom
Middle
Top
75
Mortgage holder
Renter
70
19Q4
20Q1 20Q2
20Q3
20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
Source: Scotiabank Economics.
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