Investor Presentaiton
Negative for the Irish economy: each 1% drop in UK GDP
may lower Ireland's GDP by between 0.3-0.8%
Cons
Pros
•
Trade
Lower demand from UK/ tariffs
FX: £ lower v€ (1% annual avg. move
=
= 1% hit to Irish exports to the UK)
British market as test-bed less feasible
Higher import prices possible in long-term:
tariffs may outweigh FX benefit
EU political situation may deteriorate
Banking sector likely to suffer because
of its UK operations
Political economy (border?, ally on direction of
EU economic policy)
•
Regions suffer (agriculture, tourism), while
Dublin may benefit (via FDI that leaves Britain)
.
•
Increased FDI, as multinationals avoid turmoil
Financial services (passporting)
Other multinationals - especially
IT and business services
Commercial property occupancy could rise;
there may also be an influx of well paid
workers
ECB and fiscal response in Europe
Some trade offsets
Irish companies may steal EU market
share from British ones
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
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