Fiscal 2023 Financial Performance
Macroeconomic Scenarios
SELECT MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES USED TO ESTIMATE EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Base Case Scenario
Optimistic
Pessimistic
As at
Next 12 months October 31,
As at
July 31,
As at
October 31,
As at
July 31,
As at
October 31,
As at
July 31,
Alternative Scenario -
Very Pessimistic
As at
October 31,
As at
July 31,
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
Bank of Canada overnight rate target,
0.7
0.4
1.3
1.3
(2.2)
(2.4)
(4.3)
(4.6)
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.1
1.8
2.0
6.4
6.5
4.8
4.9
4.8
5.1
3.6
3.8
5.8
6.0
average %
Unemployment rate, average %
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.4
7.6
7.3
9.7
9.3
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
1.0
0.3
1.5
0.7
(2.0)
(2.7)
(3.8)
(4.4)
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
3.2
3.7
3.5
4.0
1.9
2.4
7.0
7.5
Target federal funds rate, upper limit,
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.5
4.2
4.3
6.3
6.5
average %
Unemployment rate, average %
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
5.6
5.5
7.2
7.1
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
78
78
84
84
68
67
62
62
62
62
Source: Refer to page 191 of the Consolidated Financial Statements in the Bank's 2023 Annual Report
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