Renewable Diesel Market Value Proposition
VII CARBON MARKET DISTINCTIONS
California's LCFS Program
British Columbia LCFS Program
Reduction in Carbon Intensity (%)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-5.97%
-7.5%
-8.75%
-10%
11.25%
◆-12.5%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Designed to reduce the
carbon intensity of
California's transportation
fuel pool by 20% by 2030
2028
2029
2030
13.75%
-15%
+16.25%
-17.5%
18.75%
-20%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
Historic Compliance Targets
-16%
Reported % CI Reduction
-18%
Future Compliance Targets
-20%
CI Reduction Driving LCFS Prices
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2016
2017
Average Credit Price ($/MT)
Maximum Credit Price ($/MT)
•
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Reduction in Carbon Intensity (%)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-9.1%
-12%
-10.2%
-11.3%
-14%
-12.4%
-13.5%
-16%
-14.5%
-15.6%
-18%
-20%
-16.7%
-17.8%
-18.9%
Addressable Market
A-10% C.I. ramp-down requires 13-20%
RD depending on feedstock
More LCFS Programs
Each political jurisdiction has a variation
on its LCFS rules and timing
For example Oregon (1) begins with a
2015 baseline already including 5%
biodiesel, then requires additional 10%
C.I. reduction by 2025-approximates
15% C.I. reduction on "California basis"
The rest of Canada, and Washington
State LCFS regs coming online in 2023
British Columbia vs.
California LCFS Prices
$154 $142
$208
$354
$191 $19$197 $187
.
Statutes require larger decrease than that
$127
$131
$104
State and Provincial C.I. ramp-downs are
at different rates; steeper ramp creates
differential LCFS price among markets
which gives additional EBITDA uplift
(conservatively not included in analysis)
$88
2016A
2017A 2018A
2019A 2020A 2021A
California LCFS
■ BC LCFS
Source: CARB and British Columbia Government. BC LCFS credit converted using the average annual Canadian Dollar to USD rate in each of the respective years
(1) https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterDocs/cfpoverview.pdf.
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