Renewable Diesel Market Value Proposition slide image

Renewable Diesel Market Value Proposition

VII CARBON MARKET DISTINCTIONS California's LCFS Program British Columbia LCFS Program Reduction in Carbon Intensity (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -5.97% -7.5% -8.75% -10% 11.25% ◆-12.5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Designed to reduce the carbon intensity of California's transportation fuel pool by 20% by 2030 2028 2029 2030 13.75% -15% +16.25% -17.5% 18.75% -20% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Historic Compliance Targets -16% Reported % CI Reduction -18% Future Compliance Targets -20% CI Reduction Driving LCFS Prices $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2016 2017 Average Credit Price ($/MT) Maximum Credit Price ($/MT) • 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Reduction in Carbon Intensity (%) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -9.1% -12% -10.2% -11.3% -14% -12.4% -13.5% -16% -14.5% -15.6% -18% -20% -16.7% -17.8% -18.9% Addressable Market A-10% C.I. ramp-down requires 13-20% RD depending on feedstock More LCFS Programs Each political jurisdiction has a variation on its LCFS rules and timing For example Oregon (1) begins with a 2015 baseline already including 5% biodiesel, then requires additional 10% C.I. reduction by 2025-approximates 15% C.I. reduction on "California basis" The rest of Canada, and Washington State LCFS regs coming online in 2023 British Columbia vs. California LCFS Prices $154 $142 $208 $354 $191 $19$197 $187 . Statutes require larger decrease than that $127 $131 $104 State and Provincial C.I. ramp-downs are at different rates; steeper ramp creates differential LCFS price among markets which gives additional EBITDA uplift (conservatively not included in analysis) $88 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A California LCFS ■ BC LCFS Source: CARB and British Columbia Government. BC LCFS credit converted using the average annual Canadian Dollar to USD rate in each of the respective years (1) https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterDocs/cfpoverview.pdf. 40
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