Investor Presentaiton
Impact of Brexit on Ireland likely net negative
Deal means the shock is smaller & spread over longer horizon
Modelled impact on output versus No Brexit baseline: FTA
reduces impact significantly
IE trading partners: UK important for good imports (land
bridge) & services exports
% of
Goods
Services
Total
total
(2019)
(2019)
(2019)
-1
Exp.
Imp.
Exp. Imp. Exp.
Imp.
-2
US
30.8
15.5
15.8
18.6
21.9
17.9
UK (ex
-4
8.9
20.6
15.8
6.9
13.5
10.6
NI)
567
-5
NI
1.4
1.9
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
-6
EU-27
37.1
36.7
29.8
19.8
32.8
23.8
-7
2020
2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
China
5.9
5.8
2.8
1.3
4.0
2.3
FTA
WTO
Disorderly No-Deal
Other
15.9
19.4
35.9
53.4
27.8
45.5
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Source: CBI, NTMA analysis
20
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