Investor Presentaiton
Inflection point in Brazil macroeconomic backdrop
GDP Growth
Growth constrained temporarily by declines in
investment; return to growth currently forecasted
for 2017
Interest Rates and Inflation
Interest rates have come down significantly, as
inflation is expected to return within target as
early as 2017
Unemployment Rate
Upward trend in unemployment has softened
5.2
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.8
5.0
7.5%
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.2
14.3%
13.5%
13.8%
11.0%
11.0%
12.0%
10.8%
10.0%
8.8%
3.0%
1.9%
2.3%
0.5%
0.7%
4.0%
(3.8% (3.6%)
4.3%
6.5%
6.4%
5.9%
5.8% 5.9%
4.1%
11.3% 11.0%
8.3%
10.7%
7.0% 7.0%
6.8%
5.3%
4.7%
4.9%
4.6% 4.3%
6.3% 3.0%
(0.1%)
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I Nominal GDP (R$ trillion)
Real GDP Growth (% in R$)
Currency
BRL has appreciated considerably over the last
year
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SELIC Rate
IPCA
IPCA Upper/Lower Limit
10 Year Credit Default Swap
Brazilian CDS has decreased significantly given
recent structural adjustments in the economy and
political realm
700.000
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BOVESPA Index
After a period of sharp decline in 2015, the
BOVESPA has rallied since the beginning of 2016
+49.5%
-99.4%
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
80,000
75,000
-31.4%
600.000
70,000
500.000
65,000
400.000
60,000
300.000
55,000
50,000
200.000
45,000
2.0
100.000
40,000
1.5
0.000
35,000
09A
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BRL/USD
6
Source: BMI; IBGE; Brazilian Central Bank; Focus report; FactSet and Barclays estimates as of September 29, 2017.
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estre
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