Investor Presentaiton
Number of rating actions
Managing Ratings¹ in Turbulent Times
Non-Financial Corporates: COVID-19 Dashboard (Q2 2021)
Recovery in credit quality underway; corporate rating actions reveal a thoughtful and measured approach to credit
Upgrades surpass downgrades in late 2020; speculative-grade default rate to fall significantly
350
Rising stars Fallen angels → Upgrades - Downgrades --Represent default rate
Building heights represent the global speculative grade default rate on a trailing 12-month basis
6.8
7%
Further stabilization in certain highly exposed sectors
لمصر
SECTOR
Hotel, Gaming & Leisure
Transportation: Consumer
Automotive
Consumer goods: Non-durable
Aerospace & Defense
UD
Global - All Sectors
% NEGATIVE OUTLOOK/REVIEW-DN
47 68
17 mm 39
1838
mmm 2837
ZZ 18 25
49 60
300
250
200
3.6
150
100
50
...........................
6%
1Q21
2Q21
Represents the percentage of issuers within each sector with a negative outlook or under review for downgrade at 30 June 2021.
5%
Most downgrades since
outbreak have involved
1,050
Speculative Grade
4%
speculative-grade issuers
Approximately
3,700
648
B
168
201
3%
rated corporates
globally
Investment Grade
Ba
196
Caa
117
45
Baa
1
5
A
Aaa
Aa
EN
1.7
2%
NO
EN
1%
5
Ca
Calculated based on each issuer family since 1 March 2020; some issuer families have been downgraded more than one time over that horizon.
Some issuers have changed legal entities or otherwise do not align perfectly with entities present at 1 March 2020. A significant number of new
issuers were also added.
Timely analytical response to COVID-19
1
13
8
9
6
4
2
0 1 3 0
3 0
2
3
0
0
0
4
2
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
|
2020
16 Sector exposure to 07 Covid hits mostly
MAR Covid-19 identified MAY smaller, highly
NOV
2020 leveraged companies 2020
24
Resurgent infections
test resilience
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
DEC
FORECAST
2020
2021
COVID-19 downgrades
pick up as the virus
spreads around the world
1. Non-Financial Corporates as of 2Q 2021.
Moody's | Better decisions
Trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate; forecast uses Credit Transition Model
26 Covid-19 impact
MAY is shifting to
2021 emerging markets
17
MAR
2020
Measured approach
described
07
OCT
2020
Focus shifts from liquidity
to earnings growth and
debt capacity
31 1 year on, recovery
MAR underway
2021
2Q 2021 Investor Presentation
32View entire presentation