Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2023 (As of March 2023)
ΥΟΥ
Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions
1.5
2.6
3.7
-6.1
2020
2021
2022
2023F
% YoY
2020
2021
2022
2023F*
(Jan 23)
2023F*
(Mar 23)
Key Points:
■Thai GDP is expected to grow 3.7% in 2023, driven by a strong
rebound in tourism sector
■However, waning global economic momentum will put downward
pressure on Thai export sector; the Thai economy will experience a
K-shaped uneven recovery
■Headline inflation is expected to subside to 2.8%
■Thai GDP may return to its pre-COVID-19 level in 2023
GDP
-6.1
1.5
2.6
3.7
3.7
Private Consumption
-0.8
0.6
6.3
3.3
3.3
Government Consumption
1.4
3.7
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
Total Investment
-4.8
3.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
- Private investment
-8.1
3.0
5.1
2.8
2.8
- Public investment
5.1
3.4
-4.9
2.3
2.3
Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
-5.2
-4.8
-3.5
-4.0
-3.8
Exports (Customs Basis)
-5.9
17.4
5.5
-0.5
-1.2
Imports (Customs Basis)
-12.7
29.5
13.6
-2.1
-2.4
Current Account (USD bn)
21.2
-10.6
-16.9
5.0
6.0
Headline Inflation
-0.8
1.2
6.1
3.2
2.8
Avg Dubai Oil Price
42.2
68.8
97.0
90.0
80.0
Risk Factors:
■Global economic slowdown
■Uncertainty from Western banking turmoil
■■Volatility in energy and other commodity prices
■Fed rate hike cycle and Thai Baht volatility
■Ongoing geopolitical risks
No. of Foreign Tourists (Mn)
6.7
0.4
11.2
25.5
Policy Interest Rate**
0.50
0.50
1.25
1.75
28.5
2.00
■ Household and business balance sheet deterioration
Notes: MPC's policy rate is at 1.75% (as of March 29, 2023)
Source:
COVID-19 Vaccination rate in Thailand*** (March 10, 2023): First dose 82.8%, Second dose 77.8%, Third dose and more 50.3% of targeted people
KResearch (as of March 31, 2023)
** KBank Capital Markets Research (as of March 29, 2023)
*** Ministry of Public Health
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2023 (As of March 2023)
■Global Economy
■ Government Stimulus Plan
■Inflation
■Exports and Tourism
■Fed Policy Normalization
■ Baht
Outlook
■ Global economy: Global economy is expected to decelerate in 2023 amid persistent
inflation and continuous rate hikes by central banks around the world while uncertainty
remains with geopolitical issues and banking sector turmoil
■US: US economy is likely to face a significant slowdown in 2023 due to Fed's
aggressive interest rate hikes while banking sector turmoil may pose additional risks to
the economy
■ Eurozone: Eurozone economy is likely to face a significant slowdown in 2023 amid
elevated inflation and tightening policy
■China: Chinese economy is expected expand at a higher rate due to the relaxation of
COVID restrictions, but risks remain given ongoing property market slump and global
economic slowdown
■ ASEAN economies: ASEAN economies will likely experience slower growth amid global
economic slowdown, persistent inflation, and tighter financial conditions
■The delay in government formation and budget approval for the 2024 fiscal year would
impact the budget disbursement and the implementation of economic stimulus
measures, especially in 4Q23 onwards
■Headline inflation is expected to subside to 2.8% in 2023 as fuel prices are likely to be
lower than last year despite OPEC oil production cut. However, inflation is unlikely to
drop rapidly, given ongoing cost pass-through and lower government subsidies.
■Thai exports may experience negative growth in 2023, given global economic
slowdown, lower commodity prices, and a high base in 2022
■The number of tourist arrivals in 2023 is expected to accelerate to 28.5 million
■The Fed will need to weigh the impact of the collapse of the regional lenders in deciding
how much to raise interest rates going forward
■Fed's interest rates at the end of 2023 are expected to be 4.75%-5.00%
■Baht fluctuated around Bt33.00-35.00 per USD amid global financial market turmoil. As
Fed moves closer to its terminal rates with banking sector risks, the US dollar seems to
lose its gauge
■ At 2023 year-end, Baht will reach Bt33.50-34.00 per USD, as Thai economy continues
to recover, due to recovery of tourism with supporting sentiment from tourism amid
China early reopening and a surplus expectations on Thai current account surplus
Source: KResearch (as of March 31, 2023), and KBank Capital Markets Research (as of March 29, 2023)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
Possible Impacts to Thai Economy
■Thai economy, especially export sector, is increasingly
tilted to the downside amid increasing global economic
risks
■Fading government stimuli will weigh on Thai
economic recovery in 2023
■ Domestic consumer spending is expected to weaken
amid persistent inflation and fading pent-up demand
■Strong rebound in tourism sector will continue to be
the main driving factor for the Thai economy, while
export slump will put downward pressure on the Thai
economy
■■BOT is expected to continue its gradual rate hike,
amid decreasing inflation
■BOT's interest rate expected to be 2.00% at the end of
2023
■USD/THB confirmed its appreciation, supported by a
down cycle of the USD and China's reopening
■Looking forward, continuous recovery of Thai tourism
will bring the current account back to surplus for 2023,
while pressure from energy prices will lessen amid
oversupply concerns
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