GRS 2023 Capital Market Assumption Set
Investment Return Assumption
Sample Time Horizon Illustration
This illustration shows how order matters when cashflow is negative. Thus, even though
long term returns meet the assumptions, if the returns are lower over the short-term,
asset accumulation and thus funding status will be impacted
125%
100%
79%
75%
Funded Ratio
118%
Scenario A
103%
Scenario B
Scenario C
81%
80%
- Scenario D
50%
-9.9% 12.7%
6.0%
5.3%
9.9%
-10.8%
25%
14.0%
20.3%
2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041
The above scenarios all achieve a 7.25% compound return over a 20-year period. All
scenarios have the same annual returns, in the same order, but a different starting point.
-7.6%
13.6%
17.2%
10.9%
0.1%
-2.9%
5.3%
36.7%
GRS
27.5%
19.8%
-8.9% 0.2%
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