9M FY2023 Financial Performance
2023: Economic Growth Moderates; Interest Rates Across Home Markets
Expected to Remain Stable
Malaysia
االس
Singapore
Indonesia
2023 (f)
Previous Current
Forecast Forecast
Change in
forecast
Previous
Current Change in
2023 (f)
Forecast Forecast forecast
GDP
4.0%
3.9%
GDP
0.8%
0.8%
2023 (f)
GDP
System loan
5.0%
4.6%
System loan
-1.0%*
-6.0%*
OPR
3.00%
3.00%
3M SORA
3.80%
3.80%
USD/MYR^
4.50
4.70
USD/SGD^
1.33
1.37
Inflation average
3.0%
2.6%
Inflation average
5.1%
4.8%
System loan
Reference Rate
USD/IDR^
Inflation average
Previous Current
Forecast Forecast
5.0%
5.0%
9.5%-10.5% 9.5%-10.5%
Change in
forecast
5.75%
6.00%
15,000
3.7%
15,500
3.7%
Economic outlook
Economic outlook
Economic outlook
•
Economic growth expected at 3.9%, driven by
•
•
in
•
•
tourism recovery coupled with growth
technology and green investments
Exports projected to be weighed down by softer
external demand
OPR likely to be maintained at 3.00% for 2023
Banking outlook
•
•
Loan growth momentum to moderate in 2023 amid
expectations of slower economic growth
Following severe NIM compression in 1H2023, NIM
expected to stabilise and recover moderately in
2H2023
•
•
Economic growth of 0.8% with resilient services sector
offsetting weaker manufacturing and export sectors
Recovery signs in non-oil domestic exports and 4Q
FY2023 may see positive growth with improving
exports to China
Core inflation may taper by year-end but remain sticky
due to tight labour market
Banking outlook
Loan growth anticipated to slow as higher interest rate
leads to accelerated re-payments. Credit demand
could be impacted by ongoing weakness in China's
economy, slowing regional growth and a stronger SGD
NIMs likely peaked; could remain elevated given higher
for longer interest rate outlook. This can somewhat
mitigate weaker credit growth
Limited systemic weakness expected given strong
corporate balance sheets and friendly fiscal policy.
Asset quality to remain supported
•
Stable economic growth backed by steady domestic
demand and potential upside from election-related
spending towards year-end
Inflation remains well under control within BI's target
range of 2% to 4% given prevailing inflationary
pressures
Bl increased its reference rate by 25 bps to 6.0%; may
hold rate for rest of 2023 as currency has stabilised
Banking outlook
•
•
Bigger banks expected to pull ahead in loans growth
as they have sufficient liquidity to distribute more
loans at competitive rates
Profit uptrend momentum to continue in 2H2023
boosted by backend-loaded government investments
and pre-election campaign spending
^End-period
*Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank
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