9M FY2023 Financial Performance slide image

9M FY2023 Financial Performance

2023: Economic Growth Moderates; Interest Rates Across Home Markets Expected to Remain Stable Malaysia االس Singapore Indonesia 2023 (f) Previous Current Forecast Forecast Change in forecast Previous Current Change in 2023 (f) Forecast Forecast forecast GDP 4.0% 3.9% GDP 0.8% 0.8% 2023 (f) GDP System loan 5.0% 4.6% System loan -1.0%* -6.0%* OPR 3.00% 3.00% 3M SORA 3.80% 3.80% USD/MYR^ 4.50 4.70 USD/SGD^ 1.33 1.37 Inflation average 3.0% 2.6% Inflation average 5.1% 4.8% System loan Reference Rate USD/IDR^ Inflation average Previous Current Forecast Forecast 5.0% 5.0% 9.5%-10.5% 9.5%-10.5% Change in forecast 5.75% 6.00% 15,000 3.7% 15,500 3.7% Economic outlook Economic outlook Economic outlook • Economic growth expected at 3.9%, driven by • • in • • tourism recovery coupled with growth technology and green investments Exports projected to be weighed down by softer external demand OPR likely to be maintained at 3.00% for 2023 Banking outlook • • Loan growth momentum to moderate in 2023 amid expectations of slower economic growth Following severe NIM compression in 1H2023, NIM expected to stabilise and recover moderately in 2H2023 • • Economic growth of 0.8% with resilient services sector offsetting weaker manufacturing and export sectors Recovery signs in non-oil domestic exports and 4Q FY2023 may see positive growth with improving exports to China Core inflation may taper by year-end but remain sticky due to tight labour market Banking outlook Loan growth anticipated to slow as higher interest rate leads to accelerated re-payments. Credit demand could be impacted by ongoing weakness in China's economy, slowing regional growth and a stronger SGD NIMs likely peaked; could remain elevated given higher for longer interest rate outlook. This can somewhat mitigate weaker credit growth Limited systemic weakness expected given strong corporate balance sheets and friendly fiscal policy. Asset quality to remain supported • Stable economic growth backed by steady domestic demand and potential upside from election-related spending towards year-end Inflation remains well under control within BI's target range of 2% to 4% given prevailing inflationary pressures Bl increased its reference rate by 25 bps to 6.0%; may hold rate for rest of 2023 as currency has stabilised Banking outlook • • Bigger banks expected to pull ahead in loans growth as they have sufficient liquidity to distribute more loans at competitive rates Profit uptrend momentum to continue in 2H2023 boosted by backend-loaded government investments and pre-election campaign spending ^End-period *Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank 8
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