2Q 2023 Investor Presentation
Default Rates Expected to Rise
Amid High Interest Rates and Tight Lending Conditions¹
Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance
Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rates by
Region2
Baseline
-Optimistic
14%
Moderately Pessimistic
Severely Pessimistic
10%
Global
US
Europe
12%
8%
10%
8%
6%
4.1% global historical average1
4%
8.3%
6%
6.8%
4%
4.5%
4.2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023F
Jul-20 Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22 Jul-22
Jan-23 Jul-23
» Global speculative-grade default rate expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end, slightly above long-term average but well below prior recessionary levels
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2022. 2023 forecast ended December 31, 2023. Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: July 2023 Default
Report, August 14, 2023.
2.
Statistics are based on issuer-weighted data.
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2Q 2023 Investor Presentation
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