Outlook Projection FY 2023-24

Critical Needs Drivers... FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25 FY 2025-26 Total Critical Needs 412.0 800.9 767.5 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 Critical Needs can generally be thought of as the absolute minimum the state must do absent significant law or structural changes. In this Outlook, there are 15 Critical Needs drivers that grow significantly between the first and second years. A funding strategy was deployed that reduced the need for General Revenue in the early years of the Outlook. For the programs in the education and environmental policy areas, the Outlook maximizes the use of all available state trust funds prior to using General Revenue. To accomplish this, adjustments are made to the General Revenue Fund, the Educational Enhancement Trust Fund, the State School Trust Fund, and the Land Acquisition Trust Fund based on projected balances forward and revenue changes in the trust funds over the three-year forecast period. This shifting of funds alters the need for General Revenue from year to year, but does not affect the overall level of dollars estimated to be required for core education and environmental programs. Overall, this strategy has its most visible effect on the Critical Needs drivers. Across both education policy areas, the impact of these fund shifts can be seen in two discrete drivers (#1 and #5) that together total $572.9 million in Fiscal Year 2023-24. 10 10

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