Investor Presentaiton
Navigating External Risks
Front-loading of fiscal reforms since 2013 was good preparation and consolidation-to-growth strategy now materializing
Subdued Demand Diminishes Global Growth Outlook
Global economic developments shows downside risk due to
slow down and rebalancing of Economic activity in China and
Brazil; lower prices for energy and other commodities, gradual
tightening in monetary policy in the United States
▪ Global growth to inch up to 3.4% in 2016 from 3.1% in 2015
■ Growth in Advanced Economies to rise from 1.9% to 2.1% in
2016
■ Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies to
increase to 4.0%
■ Growth in Sub-Saharan Economies to increase to 4.1%
■ In contrast, Ghana expected to grow from 4.1% to 5.2%
Containing the Risks to Ghana's Economy
Government has shown the highest commitment to maintain
fiscal discipline
Forecast in the 2016 budget was conservative so as to limit
expectations
International commodity price has both a plus and a minus.
Positive developments for balance of payments position and
allows for entrenching elimination of subsidies on the expenditure
side. Impact on revenue side is limited as Annual Budget Funding
Amount (ABFA) is effectively ring-fenced to assist in funding
targeted adjustments
Government is monitoring this over the next few months and take
appropriate measures to contain it.
The sectoral policies and oil and gas developments to insulate
Ghana against lower global growth
Possible revision of the 2016 Budget (as with 2015) to
accommodate any further shocks to the budget.
Scenario-Based Approach to be Adopted in 2016 Budget Revision to Following Areas
Budget Oil Price
Recurrent
Expenditures
Oil
GDP Growth
Target
Oil Revenues
Non-Oil
Revenues
Capital
Expenditures
Savings Buffer
Amount
Available for
2016 Use
Fiscal Deficit
Target
Budget
Financing
Requirement
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