Blackwells Capital Activist Presentation Deck
STRONG EXPECTED E-COMMERCE PERFORMANCE TO DRIVE
DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE
1. E-commerce sales have spiked since the COVID outbreak, with 45% YoY growth in Q2 2020; the first half of 2020 would
already be the greatest year for e-commerce growth in absolute dollar terms
2. E-commerce requires ~3x the warehouse space relative to physical retail due to space necessary to pick, part, and sort
packages, higher overall inventory levels, and more returns
3. Overall supply growth will likely continue to lag demand; the unavailability of large plots of vacant land outside
metropolitan areas means the bulk of industrial supply in the medium to long-term will be generated by commercial
property conversions, which tend to take more time than greenfield developments
E-commerce penetration is forecasted to reach 30% of sales in 2030, up from 11% in 2019, which translates to a 13% annual
CAGR in e-commerce sales as shown below
Penetration / sales growth (YoY)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5)%
2010
2012
2014
Source: Green Street Advisors.
2016
BW BLACKWELLS CAPITAL
2018
2020E
2022E
2024E
E-commerce penetration
E-commerce sales growth (YoY)
Brick and mortar sales growth (YoY)
2026E
2028E
2030E
13% CAGR
(2020E-2030E)
1% CAGR
(2020E-2030E)
Strictly Confidential & Trade Secret
2030E penetration rate
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16%
41%
(0.5)%
High e-commerce
growth
13%
30%
1.1%
Base case
10%
23%
1.9%
Low e-commerce
growth
2030E penetration rate
E-commerce sales CAGR (2020E-2030E)
Brick and mortar sales CAGR (2020E-2030E)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5)%
Sales CAGR (2020E-2030E)
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