Summer 2023 Solar Industry Update

PV Annual Installations (GWdc) 70 50 40 262220 30 10 IRA-Induced Growth Projections 2022 Pre-IRA 2023P 2024P IImmediately Post-IRA 11 2025P I Current Post-IRA 2026P 2027P SFS (Decarb+E) Notes: P = projection. Colored bars represent average projections, and error bars represent high and low projections, line is the decarbonization with electrification scenario from the Solar Futures Study (SFS). Sources: BNEF, 2Q 2022 Global PV Market Outlook, 5/27/22; BNEF, 2Q 2023 Global PV Market Outlook, 8/26/22; BNEF 2Q 2023 Global PV Market Outlook, 5/23/23, Wood Mackenzie and SEIA, Q2 2022 US Solar Market Insight, 6/22; Wood Mackenzie and SEIA, Q3 2022 US Solar Market Insight, 9/22; Wood Mackenzie and SEIA, Q2 2023 US Solar Market Insight, 6/23. U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Futures Study, 9/21. Before IRA, according to projections by BloombergNEF and Wood Mackenzie/Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA), annual PV installations were expected to increase to 33 GW in 2025 (~19% annual growth over three years) and then level off, reaching only 34 GW in 2027. dc Immediately after IRA, projections from those two sources increased by ~30% per year, reaching 47 GWd in 2027. dc Since then, projections have stayed approximately the same, as CA net energy metering (NEM) 3.0 and higher interest rates have downgraded residential solar projections and interconnection queue delays and decreases in the expected cost- competitiveness for solar against other technologies has impacted utility-scale solar projections. Increased clarity on various IRA regulations has not markedly increased or decreased projections. NREL | 25

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