Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
territory than the state actor. The ability or failure of rebel groups to obtain legitimacy from
external actors can determine the avenues of access open to rebel groups to obtain success.
Traditional definitions of rebellion perceive conflict as the open, armed opposition or
resistance to the rule of a legitimate government power³. These definitions paint a relatively clear
picture of the what constitutes rebel conflict against state actors. The picture of political
legitimacy, however, is less clear as the subjective determination, contextual realities, and
opinions of state, external, and civilian actors are needed to fully portray rebel legitimacy'.
Bringing legitimacy into the rebellion context is important for several reasons. First,
examining legitimacy dynamics in rebel conflicts allows for a wider understanding of the
ideological drivers of rebel activity, objectives, and support networks. Second, examining
rebellion through legitimacy allows for a neutral evaluation of rebel actors, supporters, and
motivations outside of traditional state-rebel roles, where states are assumed to hold legitimate
power, and rebels are assumed to lack such power. Third, assessing legitimacy in rebellion
allows for a deeper unraveling of actor involvement, roles, and allegiances. Looking at rebellion
through a legitimacy lens warrants an examination of attitudes, ideologies, and perspectives of
actors involved in the rebellion that can provide insight into their intentions, justifications, and
means for supporting or failing to support rebels.
Despite the importance of legitimacy in understanding rebellion and insurgency,
legitimacy literature in rebellion contexts is underdeveloped. Bruce Gilley (2011) conducted a
statistical analysis to assess the strength of a correlation between 100 indicators expected to
provide state legitimacy and cumulative perceptions of state legitimacy. Study findings indicated
that states with active rebel conflict were significantly more likely to host low legitimacy
indexes¹º. Similar evaluations of legitimacy in rebel groups have not been examined, but could
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