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Investor Presentaiton

Banking credit forecast using lagged GDP Banking credit $ billons 4,700 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1,700 1,200 700 2002 Forecast Fitted Observed 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Note: *We asumme a 3.1% GDP growth in 2022 Source: Banorte with INEGI and Banxico data 12 79 Backtest and forecast* % y/y in real terms Adjusted model Year Observed Original model (dummy 2020) 2019 4.6 5.5 2020 1.1 1.7 2021 -8.6 -8.8 -8.6 2022* 1.8 (YTD to Nov) 1.4 1.2 2023* 4.4 4.4 Banking Credit Forecast Model Different adjustment variables were tested (e.g. GDP, interest rate TIIE, industrial activity, remittances, etc.) and it was found that the best adjustment is seen with the one-year-lag for GDP. This implies that a relatively robust forecast can be made for banking credit one year ahead, while internal estimates can be used for two years. Div DB Rev Dep NIM TI LD Loan BAP Guid ESG Eco Hist NI ROE ICAP Mkt App C/I GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE
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