Investor Presentaiton
Banking credit forecast using lagged GDP
Banking credit
$ billons
4,700
4,200
3,700
3,200
2,700
2,200
1,700
1,200
700
2002
Forecast
Fitted
Observed
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020 2023
Note: *We asumme a 3.1% GDP growth in 2022
Source: Banorte with INEGI and Banxico data
12
79
Backtest and forecast*
% y/y in real terms
Adjusted model
Year
Observed
Original model
(dummy 2020)
2019
4.6
5.5
2020
1.1
1.7
2021
-8.6
-8.8
-8.6
2022*
1.8 (YTD to Nov)
1.4
1.2
2023*
4.4
4.4
Banking Credit Forecast Model
Different adjustment variables were tested (e.g. GDP, interest
rate TIIE, industrial activity, remittances, etc.) and it was found
that the best adjustment is seen with the one-year-lag for
GDP.
This implies that a relatively robust forecast can be made for
banking credit one year ahead, while internal estimates can be
used for two years.
Div
DB
Rev
Dep
NIM
TI
LD
Loan
BAP
Guid
ESG
Eco
Hist
NI
ROE
ICAP
Mkt
App
C/I
GRUPO FINANCIERO
BANORTEView entire presentation