Investor Presentaiton
Default Rates Outlook and Tight Credit Spreads Create
Supportive Issuance Environment
Default Rates for Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance 1
-Global -U.S. -Europe
U.S. HY Bond Spreads²
1000
U.S. HY Bond Spreads
U.S. Spec Grade Default Rate (R.)
9%
8%
800
7%
6%
4.1% global
5%
historic average¹
600
4%
3%
-2.6%
~2.4%
400
2%
2.1%
1%
0%
200
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020 2022F
3Q19
1Q20
3Q20
1Q21
3Q21
» Trailing twelve months global speculative-grade default rate as of January 30, 2022 was 1.8%
» Global speculative-grade default rate to initially decline before gradually rising to ~2.4% at the end of the year
1.
2.
Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2021. 2022 forecast for trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2021 from Moody's Investors Service on February 10, 2022.
Reported data as of December 31, 2021. Bond spreads as of the last day of each month. Source: St. Louis Fed Database.
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4Q & FY 2021 Investor Presentation
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