Economic and Investment Outlook

External environment in 2023 Recent data better than expected but still mixed and leaning towards global slowdown EA Monetary Policy 2022 Purchases ended; Rate normalisation EU Fiscal Policy Expansionary 2023 Rate normalisation + start of QT Expansionary Ireland price taker on Oil/Gas: significant cost beginning to recede in early 2023 but not fully fed through to consumers 4.0 US Monetary Policy US growth Sharp increase in rates Decelerating growth Policy rate elevated EUR, billion € 3.0 $2.0 Low growth 1.0 Energy prices Severe crisis Prices pressure easing 0.0 UK growth Decelerating growth Low growth at best Euro Growth Global Inflation Financial Stability Little concern Slow growth Elevated in 2022 Low growth at best Core measures elevated Unknown but steady after initial concerns 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Gas imports (3 mths rolling) Petroleum imports (3 mths rolling) - Total imports (3 mths rolling) Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta National Treasury Management Agency Source: CSO 23 23

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