Group Financial Results H1 2016
-15
-10
Q4.08
-5
Q1.09
Q2.09
0
5
100,0
10
3,0 3,2
42,0
Tourism is expanding & Residential Property Index is stabilising
-2,4-3,0
-6,0
-7,1
28,3
Tourist activity accelerated in 2015 and 2016 with total arrivals up 21,2% in the
first half driven by a 48% increase from Russia
Arrivals: % change year-on-year
The distribution of tourist arrivals has been shifting over time with the UK
now at 37,1% and Russia at 23,8%
-17.6
5,3
6,6
7,8
9,2
8,6
45,0
21,2
22,6
22,8
20,3
22,4
4.8
6.1
4,4
4.6
4,1
5,2
19,8
5,6
19,5
19,2
25,3
26,1
19,7
23,8
13,6
8,9 7,2
4,2
4.0
4.1
4,6
3.5
1,5 0,2
58,5
39,2
37,1
37,1
35,7
-2,2
2003
2013
2014
2015
1H2016
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 Jan-Jul
UK Germany Russia ■Greece
■Other Europe
Non-Europe
■Total Arrivals Europe
UK
■Russia
Residential property prices declined by a cumulative 30% from their peak and
started to stabilise from the second half of 2015
15
Central Bank Residential Property Index (Rebased to 2008Q4)
Residential property prices appear correlated with GDP growth with a lag,
and might thus turn higher in the next few quarters
Residential property prices and real GDP in 4Q moving averages
Q3.09
Q4.09
Q1.10
Q2.10
Q3.10
Q4.10
Q1.11
Q2.11
Q3.11
Q4.11
Q1.12
Q2.12
Q3.12
Q4.12
110,0
105,0
4,0
100,0
2,0
95,0
0,0
90,0
-2,0
-1,6
-1,8
85,0
-4,0
-3,7
80,0
-6,0
75,0
70,7 70,1
-8,0
70,0
-10,0
65,0
60,0
Q1.13
Q2.13
Q3.13
Q4.13
Q1.14
Q2.14
Q3.14
Q4.14
Q1.15
Q2.15
Q3.15
Q4.15
Q1.16
1100-2008Q4 of 4Q moving averages (RHS)
Residential Property Index % change y-o-y
SOURCES: Statistical Service of Republic of Cyprus, European Commission, Bloomberg, IMF and company reports, Calculations by BOC Economic Research
Q3.09
Q4.09
Q1.10
Q2.10
Q3.10
Q4.10
Q1.11
Q2.11
Residential property prices % change
Q3.11
Q4.11
Q1.12
Q2.12
Q3.12
Q4.12
Q1.13
Q2.13
Q3.13
Q4.13
Q1.14
Q2.14
Q3.14
༢༠,G
Q4.14
Q1.15
Q2.15
Q3.15
Q4.15
Real GDP % changes
Q1.16
Bank of Cyprus
29
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