Barclays Q1 2021 Fixed Income Investor Presentation
STRATEGY, TARGETS
CAPITAL
PERFORMANCE
ASSET QUALITY
& GUIDANCE
& LEVERAGE
MREL, FUNDING
& LIQUIDITY
CREDIT RATINGS
ESG
DIVISIONS
& LEGAL ENTITIES
APPENDIX
Improved MEVS not reflected in Q121 ECL charge, with
continued management adjustment for macro uncertainty
Sensitivity to current macroeconomic variables
MEVS used in Q121 results
Current MEVS
2021 2022 2023
2021
2022 2023
Indicative change in MEVS
2021 2022 2023
UK GDP
UK
US GDP
Annual
growth
Quarterly
unemployment | average
Annual
growth
3.3% 3.4%
2.9%
5.0% 5.7% 2.3%
+1.7% +2.3%
-0.6%
6.0% 6.6%
6.0%
5.8%
5.6% 5.1%
-0.2% -1.0% -0.9%
1.9%
3.2%
2.9% 5.5%
3.8%
1.6% +3.6% +0.6% -1.3%
US
Quarterly
7.3%
5.8%
5.6% 5.7% 4.5% 4.5% -1.6% -1.3% -1.1%
unemployment | average
Q121 baseline UK and US macroeconomic variables
(MEVS) were rolled forward from FY20 to derive the
Q121 ECL calculation, (i.e. using the FY20 actuals as
the updated baseline)
We have used the current MEVS based on more recent
consensus to calculate a sensitivity:
Had these MEVs been used in the Q121 ECL calculation,
ceteris paribus, we estimate the required impairment
allowance would be c.£0.5bn lower
Impairment allowance (£m)
Allowance pre management adjustment
Management adjustment
Total
Of which on balance sheet
Of which off balance sheet
Balance sheet impairment allowance and management adjustment
Dec-19 Dec-20 Write offs
P&L
charge
Other
incl. FX
Mar-21
340
6,290 8,011
1,388
6,630 9,399
6,308 8,335
322
7,606
•
1,223
-454
55
-171
1,064
8,829
7,827
1,002
Total Group impairment allowance reduced by £0.6bn
to £8.8bn, reflecting write-offs of £0.5bn, relative to a
lower impairment charge of £55m
Management adjustment of £1.2bn is similar in nature
to Dec-20 and represents the judgement for economic
uncertainty partly offset by other adjustments
The management adjustment will evolve as the impact
of support measures being withdrawn becomes
apparent and economic uncertainty reduces
2021 impairment charge expected to be materially below that of 2020. If improved macroeconomic indicators persist, Barclays would expect
to reduce the impairment provision level
28 Barclays Q1 2021 Fixed Income Investor PresentationView entire presentation