Bank of Ireland 2020 Debt Investor Presentation
Forward Looking Information - macro-economic
scenarios
Bank of Ireland 2020 Debt Investor Presentation
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Republic of Ireland
United Kingdom
GDP growth¹
31 Dec 2020
Central scenario 1 - 45% probability weighting
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate²
2021
2022
2023-2025
2021
2022
2023-2025
5.1%
3.6%
3.0%
6.3%
4.0%
1.9%
5.1%
3.4%
2.8%
n/a
n/a
n/a
10.2%
5.9%
5.3%
7.1%
6.0%
4.7%
Residential property price growth³
(3.0%)
0.0%
1.7%
(3.0%)
(1.0%)
2.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(4.5%)
0.0%
1.0%
(3.5%)
0.0%
0.8%
Central scenario 2-5% probability weighting
2.8%
GDP growth¹
2.7%
3.7%
2.9%
4.3%
2.1%
n/a
GNP growth¹
1.6%
3.5%
2.8%
n/a
n/a
6.2%
Unemployment rate²
10.7%
8.1%
5.5%
7.3%
4.9%
Residential property price growth³
(4.0%)
0.0%
1.7%
(4.0%)
(1.5%)
2.2%
Commercial property price growth³
(5.5%)
1.0%
1.0%
(5.0%)
(1.5%)
1.0%
Upside - 20% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate²
4.3%
8.1%
3.9%
3.2%
9.3%
2.1%
n/a
8.3%
3.7%
3.0%
n/a
n/a
9.1%
4.7%
4.2%
5.9%
4.8%
3.9%
0.0%
Residential property price growth³
(1.0%)
1.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
2.7%
1.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(2.0%)
1.5%
1.0%
(1.5%)
1.0%
Downside scenario 1 - 25% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
(1.9%)
3.5%
2.8%
(1.0%)
2.4%
1.8%
n/a
GNP growth¹
(3.0%)
3.3%
2.6%
n/a
n/a
9.2%
Unemployment rate²
12.9%
10.5%
8.2%
9.8%
7.8%
Residential property price growth³
(5.0%)
(2.0%)
1.3%
(7.0%)
(4.0%)
1.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(7.0%)
(1.0%)
0.8%
(7.0%)
(2.5%)
0.8%
Downside scenario 2-5% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
(2.1%)
(1.0%)
2.5%
(1.0%)
(1.5%)
1.5%
n/a
GNP growth¹
(3.2%)
(1.2%)
2.3%
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
14.0%
14.3%
11.7%
11.1%
10.5%
10.2%
Residential property price growth³
(5.0%)
(4.0%)
0.7%
(8.0%)
(6.0%)
0.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(9.0%)
(4.0%)
0.3%
(8.0%)
(4.0%)
0.3%
1 Annual growth rate
2 Average yearly rate
3 Year-end figures
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