Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic forecasts and outlook for mBank Group
Key economic indicators for Poland
Short-term prospects for mBank (4 quarters ahead)
2020
2021
2022F
2023F
Net interest income & NIM
neutral
GDP growth (YoY)
-2.2%
5.9%
4.6%
0.4%
Domestic demand (YoY)
-2.9%
7.6%
7.3%
-1.2%
Ongoing cycle of rate hikes translating into rising cost of deposits,
exhausted potential for further margin improvement
Private consumption (YoY)
-3.0%
6.1%
5.3%
1.8%
■ Material negative impact of credit vacations on interest income
Investment (YoY)
-4.9%
3.8%
5.5%
Inflation (eop)
2.4%
8.6%
15.3%
MPC rate (eop)
0.10% 1.75%
7.00%
-1.3%
8.0%
5.00%
Net fee and commission income
slightly positive
CHF/PLN (eop)
4.22
4.42
4.79
4.49
EUR/PLN (eop)
4.56
4.59
4.65
4.55
Uptrend anchored in growing customer base and transactionality, as
well as extending investment product offering
Relevant adjustments to tariff of fees already implemented
Polish banking sector – monetary aggregates YoY
Total costs
negative
2020
2021
2022F
2023F
■ Visible wage and inflationary pressure weights on operating costs
Investments in future growth along with increasing revenues
Corporate loans
-4.8%
3.9%
10.0%
Household loans
3.0%
4.9%
-1.3%
Mortgage loans
7.3%
7.1%
-0.4%
Mortgage loans in PLN
9.7%
12.0%
Non-mortgage loans
-3.8%
1.1%
Corporate deposits
19.0%
10.4%
Household deposits
10.7%
6.7%
-0.5%
-2.8% -3.4%
1.2% -4.7%
2.3% 4.3%
3.9%
-1.0%
0.2%
4.6%
■ An additional contribution to the Borrowers' Support Fund
Loan loss provisions & FV change
■ The overall asset quality should not deteriorate materially thanks to
prudent approach in loan origination
■ Financial standing of borrowers may be affected by the changing
macroeconomic environment and geopolitical developments
slightly negative
Source: mBank's estimates as of 29.07.2022.
Covered Bonds Investor Presentation
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