Financial Performance and Digital Progress Update
Interest Rate Sensitivity
.
NET INTEREST INCOME SENSITIVITY
Impact of an immediate and sustained 100 bps parallel
shift on net interest income (NII) over a 12-month period
○ +100 bps: $99 million decrease in NII
О -100 bps: $68 million increase in NII
POLICY RATE CHANGE AND OUTLOOK
Policy
rate
Rate Change by BNS
Fiscal Quarters (bps)
Above estimates assume a static balance sheet and no
management actions¹
Country on
Oct FY
2022
31/21
Canada 0.25% +350
Q1/23Q2/23Q3/23 Q4/23
QTD
Q1/24
Current
Policy
Rate
Forecast Policy Rate²
Dec Mar Jun Sep
30/23 29/24 28/24 30/24
+75
+50
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.75% 4.25%
•
Q/Q: Maintained low NII sensitivity
•
NII benefit if market implied forward rates are realized
US 0.25% +300 +125 +50
Mexico 4.75% +450 +125 +75
Colombia 2.50% +850 +175 +50
Peru 1.50% +550 +75
Chile 2.75% +850
+50
-
5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.25% 4.75%
-
-
11.25% 11.25% 11.00% 10.50% 10.00%
-
-50
-100 -125
-
9.00% 8.50% 7.50% 5.75% 4.75%
13.25% 12.75% 11.25% 9.25% 7.75%
-25 7.00% 6.75% 6.75% 6.25% 5.50%
HISTORICAL INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT AND OUTLOOK 3
Canada & US (%)
Mexico & Chile (%)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
1.0
3.0
0.0
Oct-22
Apr-23
-BoC Overnight Rate
Oct-23
-Fed Funds Rate
Apr-24
-CAD 5-Yr Swap Rate
-USD 5-Yr Swap Rate
Oct-24
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Bank of Mexico Overnight Rate
Bank of Chile Monetary Policy Rate
Apr-24
MXN 5-Yr Swap Rate
Oct-24
- CLP 5-Yr Swap Rate
1 Additional detail regarding non-trading interest rate sensitivity can be found on page 232 of the Consolidated Financial Statements in the Bank's 2023 Annual Report, available on http://www.sedarplus.ca
2 Source: Scotia Economics. US and Canada forecast as of October 23, 2023, Pacific Alliance countries forecast as of November 3, 2023
3 As at November 16, 2023
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