Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS AND
ANALYSIS
The Chechen separatist rebellion paints a compelling picture of the significance of
legitimacy on rebellion outcomes. In Chechnya, rebel successes appear to increase significantly
in response to avenues opened by actors that view the group as a legitimate entity. From 1991-
1998, the rebellion achieved de facto rule of Chechnya, fostering support from Chechen civilians
and institutions, Russian non-governmental actors, and many within the international
community. In 2000, shifting domestic and international perceptions driven by growing Islamist
rhetoric, weak organizational capacity, and reduced civilian support contributed to declining
perceptions of the rebel group as a legitimate political force. The reduction in legitimacy
manifested itself in reduction of external support, which contributed to significant rebel losses in
economic, political, social, and territorial control.
This evaluation found that rebel achievements of legitimacy produced higher levels of
support expressed through resources, diplomacy, propaganda at the hands of those perceiving the
group and its cause as a legitimate political force. As such, higher levels of legitimacy could be
tracked to higher levels of success.
This finding also produced several more detailed evaluations of the effects of legitimacy
on rebel success. First, it can be understood that the greater number of actors that provide
legitimacy to the rebel group, the more avenues to access resources, diplomacy and networks a
rebel group achieves. In the case of Chechnya, both the insurgency and de facto government
succeeded in establishing perceptions of the de facto government and the Chechen independence
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