Ares US Real Estate Opportunity Fund III
U.S. Faces Gradual Recovery Following Deep and Sudden Recession
We believe the U.S. economy will require at least two to three years to stabilize at or near 2019 metrics
Indexed Real GDP (Q4 2019 = 100)
102.0
ā
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
92.0
90.0
88.0
U.S. Real GDP and Unemployment Dramatically
Impacted by COVID-19 Outbreak
2020
COVID-19
2021
GDP (Historical)
Unemployment (Historical)
Sources: Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts as of September 2020
2022
16.0
COVID-19 triggered GDP decline of 10.2% from 1H 2020
GDP projected to recover to 2019 baseline by early 2022
Unemployment projected to return to 2019 levels after 2022
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
GDP (Forecast)
Unemployment (Forecast)
Unemployment (%)
4
2
Quarterly Change in U.S. Jobs (Millions)
00
0
4
-10
-12
-14
2006
After Unprecedented Drop, Employment Recovery
Just Beginning
2008
GFC
2010
2012
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics as of August 2020
For illustrative purposes only. Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as indicators of actual or future results.
Confidential - Not for Publication or Distribution
25
2014
2016
Payrolls up by
3.1 million in
July-August
2018
2020
Payrolls down by
13.3 million in Q2
Unprecedented scale and speed of job losses due to COVID-19,
eclipsing the peak job losses of the GFC
July/August rebound points to a correction of the bottom rather than a
snap-back to pre-COVID employment
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