Scotiabank Pacific Alliance Expansion
Mexican Economy
Solid mix of sectors
Manufacturing and primary produces have so
far led the recovery, but into H2-2021 services
are expected to contribute more strongly.
Trade with the U.S. is leading growth, but
Mexico's diversification agenda is also
underpinned by 14 free-trade agreements with
46 countries that account for 39% of global
GDP and include all G7 countries
Authorities' fiscal and debt indicators remain
sound, and a fiscal reform is expected to be
presented over the coming 12 mo.
GDP Growth 2021F:
4.9%
GDP Growth 2022F:
2.1%
16.6%
Finance, Insurance,
& Real Estate
15.4%
Other
3.5%
Natural
Resources
5.7%
Transportation
& Warehousing
6.1%
Health & Education
MEXICAN GDP
BY INDUSTRY*
(Q4 2020)
1.8%
Professional,
Scientific,
& Technical
Services
4.1%
Public
Administration
17.9%
Wholesale &
Retail Trade
16.4%
Manufacturing
6.4%
Mining and Oil
& Gas Extraction
6.0%
Construction
* Q1-2021 real GDP growth -3.1% y/y. Industry GDP breakdown not yet available for Q1-2021.
Top 5 Trading Partners*
Contributions to Mexican GDP Growth
8
6
y/y % change
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Other*
-12
Investment
Net Exports
Government
Inventories
Consumption
-14
Real GDP
-16
-18
-20
17
18
19
20
*Statistical discrepancy, subject to revision.
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics.
Others
20%
South Korea 2%
Germany 3%
United
States
Canada
4%
China
11%
* Trade data updated as of Q4-2020
59%
59
59View entire presentation