Serbia Economic and FDI Outlook
National Bank of Serbia Inflation in March Slowed Down to 5.0% y/y
In accordance with NBS expectations, inflation
followed a declining path since Q2 2023...
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16
Chart 1 CPI developments
(y/y rates, %) and contributions (pp)
...with an equal level of core and the headline
inflation in March
18
86
Chart 2 Contributions to y/y core inflation
(pp)
Services
Other
Energy
62
16
Core Inflation*
Food
14
Goods
14
CPI Inflation
.Tolerance Band
12
12
Inflation Target
Core Inflation
10
10
8 6
4
2
2
0
-2
806
5.0
4-
2-
0
-2
5.0
14 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
In the period of seven years prior to the outbreak of the
current crisis, inflation averaged around 2%.
se
• Average annual inflation in 2023 was 12.1% which is close
to the average inflation in 2022 (11.9%).
•
Inflation has been decreasing since April 2023. Slowdown
was especially intensified in H2 2023.
.
Since the beginning of the year, inflation has slowed by an
additional 2.6 p.p. (5.0% y/y in March).
As in recent months, the key contribution to inflation
slowdown came from the slackening growth in the prices of
food and products and services within core inflation.
•
•
147101471014710147101 47101 47101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 47101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 47101
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
In the period before the outbreak of the current crisis, core
inflation also averaged around 2%.
In March, core inflation slowed down to 5.0% y/y, which
was contributed to by the effects of the tightening of
monetary policy, weakening of cost pressures and lower
inflation expectations.
According to the latest results of Ipsos survey, one-year
ahead expectations of the financial sector were within NBS
tolerance band and stood at 4.0%.
Medium term expectations of the financial sector were also
within NBS tolerance band.
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