First Quarter 2022 Investor Presentation

37 Updated macro scenarios and scenario probability weightings led to an increase of ECL allowances in Q1 Three scenarios for ECL modelling GDP growth assumptions Q1 2022 (Q4 2021) Positive 15% (15%) probability Negative - 25% (20%) probability • • Base 60% (65%) probability 4.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.5% 2.3%2.2% 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% -0.5% 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 OECD 2024 Sweden 2022 2023 2024 The positive scenario assumes a faster resolution of the Ukraine conflict and that the positive forces of the post-pandemic normalisation is underestimated. This may apply to the demand side in the form of pent-up consumptions and capital spending needs, and to the supply side where the flow of people back into the labour market may be stronger than expected The base scenario assumes that the war in Ukraine, energy prices and higher interest rates have a significant economic impact lowering GDP growth forecasts. Fiscal initiatives especially in defence and energy are expected to soften negative effects. The war is speeding up inflation and labour markets are expected not to weaken enough to persuade monetary central banks to hold off on monetary tightening. More and earlier key rate hikes are expected which will help bring about a clear decline in inflation during 2023 The negative scenario reflects the downside risk f the war and the aftermath of the pandemic. The war in Ukraine may escalate in a way that has more far-reaching economic consequences. It is also possible that the impact of current sanctions and trade tensions are underestimated. A stronger inflation surge would erode household purchasing power and weaken the profitability in many businesses. Probability-weighted ECL allowances: SEK 8.2bn 100% probability of positive scenario: -3% ECL allowances 100% probability of negative scenario: +4% ECL allowances Source: SEB Nordic Outlook March 2021. SEB

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