Global Leader in Hydro Power and Aluminium
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Aluminium Supply Outside China is at Risk in 2020
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Aluminium Cash official price plummeted to $1,536/t on March 23rd, their
lowest since May 2016, as Covid-19 outbreak in the World Exc China has
resulted in a sharp fall in base metal prices amid fear of global recession.
Around 11 million tonnes of ROW smelting capacity suffering from losses at
current aluminium prices.
LME aluminum stocks renewed their growth since March 19th and rose by ~
122 kt to 1.08 Mt mostly due to aluminium's arrival into Malaysia's
warehouses.
PMI across manufacturers of aluminium sheet/plate and strip, foil, wire and
cable, construction and industrial extrusion, primary and secondary alloy in
China dropped to 34.7 in February.
Chinese aluminum semis export to ROW markets to be hit by virus issues
and have dropped by 25.3% year-on-year to c.669 thousand tonnes in
January-February 2020, and expected to decline further in March 2020.
Aluminium (unwr.+Alloy+semis) exports from China
GROUP
ROW reported stocks
$/t
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Mar-20
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
LME CW stocks (rhs)
100 day MA
Jan-20
Feb-20
LME on-warrant stocks (rhs)
LME Cash
50 day MA
ROW smelting production loss
$/t
2500
2000
LME price = $1,536/t
669
1500
11.4 Mt (39%)
kt
1500
1250
1000
750
500
kt
~895
600
500
400
300
200
100
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Source: CRU, LME, companies data, RUSAL analysis
En+ Group overview
Investment highlights
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Sustainable business
development
Results snapshot
1000
500
OMt
5Mt
10Mt
2020 Business Cost, 4Q2019 assumption
Power segment
15Mt
20Mt
25Mt
30Mt
Metals segment
57
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