SCGC Acquisition and Expansion Strategy
Near-term outlook: cautiously optimistic as positive signs emerge, while challenges linger
P.21
Global
Macro Econ
Industry Specific
Subsidiaries (Olefins & Vinyl)
Recovery of emerging
markets, while developed
markets mired in recession.
Pivotal are energy volatility
and sticky inflation.
ASEAN
Continued recovery supported
by service sector rebound,
while exports to developed
Crude
markets face lower demand
and higher FX risk
Volatility and uncertainty
amidst geopolitical tensions
and the earlier than expected
China reopening
•
Demand
Olefins: Inventory restocking globally and improved market sentiment, boosted by China's earlier-than-expected
reopening and stimulus package, while monitoring for additional details after the Lunar New Year
Vinyl: Resumed buying from India, while China stimulus policy towards the real estate sector is positive.
•
Supply
Olefins: Anticipating some existing crackers to restart globally
New capacity additions will continue in the near-term.
Wave 2019-2023, the incremental capacity average 5%.
Wave 2008-2012, the incremental capacity averaged 4%.
Vinyl: Expected penetration of imports from the US, and possibly China.
Cost
•
Olefins: Continued volatility of oil/naphtha amidst improving cracking demand and high freight rate
after EU ban on Russian refined products
Vinyl: Higher EDC prices from improved downstream sentiment, amidst a drop in upstream value
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