Scotiabank Risk Overview

Canada: Consumer and Business Activity GDP Trending Upward Despite Stalling in 2023 Business Confidence - CFIB Business Barometer 110 Index, 2019Q4 = 100 105 Jan 13, 2020 forecast 100 95 90 90 85 80 S19Q4 2001 2002 tia 2003 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2004 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 ti 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 80 70 60 60 Feb 06, 2023 forecast 50 00 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 Key Economic Indicators index, Feb 2020 levels 100 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Auto Sales Mfg Shipments Exports Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg. Housing Starts Retail Sales Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Employment 40 30 20 20 index, > 50 = stronger 3-month moving average 6-month moving average Avg. 2011-present 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CFIB. 16 17 18 19 20 20 110 Feb. 2020=100 105 100 95 90 85 80 Manufacturing PMI Labour Market Recovery Canada Jobs Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. Dec-20 SFeb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Headline index 21 22 23 +150K Jobs in Jan. 2023 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 68

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